UNLV Political Science Faculty Publications: Damore

The 2016 presidential race is arguably already over in 40 states and the District of Columbia. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2016, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for the voters in 38 other states too. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, their votes matter. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories about them by the media. Understanding why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to only ten states is the subject of Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter. Stacey Hunter Hecht and David Schultz offer a first of its kind examination of why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and what states beyond 2016 may be the future ones that decide the presidency.

In giving President Obama a record level of support (75 percent) and reaching a watershed 10 percent of the voting population, Latinos proved to be decisive in the 2012 election outcome--an unprecedented mark of influence for this segment of the wider electorate. This shift also signaled a radical reenvisioning of mobilization strategies by both parties and created a sea change in the way political organizations conduct outreach and engagement efforts. In this groundbreaking volume, experts in Latino politics ask: What is the scope of Latino voter influence, where does this electorate have the greatest impact, and what issues matter to them most? They examine a key national discussion--immigration reform--as it relates to voter behavior, and also explore the influence of Latinos within key states, including California, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. While some of these states have traditionally had strong Latino voting blocs, in others Latinos are just emerging as major players electorally. The book also discusses the extent to which Latinos were mobilized during the 2012 campaign and analyzes election outcomes using new tools created by Latino Decisions. A blend of rigorous data analysis and organizational commentary, the book offers a variety of perspectives on the past, present, and future of the Latino electorate.

Sometime in April 2014, somewhere in a hospital in California, a Latino child tipped the demographic scales as Latinos displaced non-Hispanic whites as the largest racial/ethnic group in the state. So, one-hundred-sixty-six years after the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo brought the Mexican province of Alta California into the United States, Latinos once again became the largest population in the state. Surprised? Texas will make the same transition sometime before 2020. When that happens, America's two most populous states, carrying the largest number of Electoral College votes, will be Latino. New Mexico is already there. New York, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are shifting rapidly. Latino populations since 2000 have doubled in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Dakota. The US is undergoing a substantial and irreversible shift in its identity. So, too, are the Latinos who make up these populations. Matt Barreto and Gary M. Segura are the country's preeminent experts in the shape, disposition, and mood of Latino America. They show the extent to which Latinos have already transformed the US politically and socially, and how Latino Americans are the most buoyant and dynamic ethnic and racial group, often in quite counterintuitive ways. Latinos' optimism, strength of family, belief in the constructive role of government, and resilience have the imminent potential to reshape the political and partisan landscape for a generation and drive the outcome of elections as soon as 2016.

The 2012 Republican nomination process went on longer than most pundits predicted early on. While Mitt Romney began the season as the prohibitive favorite, he was tested repeatedly by what was seemingly the Republican flavor of the week (including Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum). The sheer number of candidates who were viewed as legitimate contenders demonstrate the fundamental concern facing Republicans moving forward: a fractured party. The pro-business, Tea Party, and evangelical Christian wings disagreed in 2010 on who would provide the best alternative to Democratic President Barack Obama and as a result created a crippling nomination period. By the time Romney was able to claim victory, he was severely wounded after countless attacks from his fellow Republicans. To this internal discontent, we can also add the changing national demographics that could lead to electoral problems for Republicans in their own right. Consider that Mitt Romney did better with older, white male voters than John McCain had. Unfortunately, the share of the national vote for this demographic decreased from 2008 to 2012. As Rand Paul stated recently, the time has come for Republicans to reach out to individuals who do not fit the stereotyped Republican image if they have any hope of being successful. In this volume, we assess how the 2012 GOP nomination cycle is indicative of just how the Republican Party has become, in the words of pundit Cuck Warren, a Mad Men Party in a Modern Family World. "

The Mountain West--Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah--has become the new swing region in American politics. All signs point to these states, especially Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, being crucial in the 2012 election. Unfortunately, the rise of this region has been underreported in the media, and many political observers have only the most superficial understanding of the profound economic, political, and social changes that continue to reshape the Mountain West. America's New Swing Region is the remedy. Led by bestselling author and political analyst Ruy Teixeira, a talented group of scholars assembled by the Brookings Mountain West program (housed at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas) presents the facts and the narrative necessary for understanding what is happening in this region and why it is so important. Contents 1. Introduction and Overview 2. America's New Swing Region: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West 3. Metropolitan Voting Patterns in the Mountain West: The New and Old Political Heartlands 4. Hispanics, Race, and the Changing Political Landscape of the United States Mountain West 5. The Political Attitudes of the Millennial Generation in the Mountain West 6. The Mountain West Today: A Regional Survey 7. Reapportionment and Redistricting in the Mountain West Contributors include Karlyn Bowman (American Enterprise Institute), David Damore(University of Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV), William Frey (Brookings Institution), Scott Keeter (Pew Research Center), Robert E. Lang (Brookings, UNLV, and the Lincy Institute), Tom Sanchez (Virginia Tech University), and Ruy Teixeira (Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress).